DFW Foreign Carrier Estimated September 2017 Loads

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DFW Foreign Carrier Estimated September 2017 Loads

Postby Greg on Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:53 pm

Here are the estimated load factors for the foreign carriers at DFW for September 2017. Interjet struggles mightily again, barely filling half their available seats for the second month in a row. This month we estimate Interjet at a 49.47% overall load factor, while in August they were at 54.18%. I’d really be curious on their overall yields.

Qatar saw a rare off month, filling just 58.68% of all available seats. October and November have seen them operate 283-seat Airbus A350-900s on the DFW-DOH run… if that had been used in September they would have been at 73.55% loads overall. For the first nine months of the year Qatar’s DFW passenger counts are off 8.3% compared to 2016.

Lufthansa enjoyed a very strong month, with over 94% of all their seats filled. Japan Airlines remains strong and we keep waiting to see if this route finally gets up-gauged to a Boeing 777-300. Etihad, departing DFW in March, was solid at 84.41% but one has to imagine yield is low if they are dropping the route entirely.

How did we arrive at the data?
I took publicly available seat counts and other published data showing available data and came up with these estimates. I do not guarantee 100% accuracy, but I think we are fairly close to the true numbers. OAG, Various “Source” websites, airline sites etc.

Assumptions:
AeroMexico – 59 flights with 99 seats
Air Canada - 146 flights with 73 seats, 30 flights with 75 seats
Avianca - 17 flights with 96 seats, one flight with 150 seats
British Airways - 15 flights with 337 seats, 15 flights with 275 seats
Emirates - 29 flights with 354 seats, one flight with 266 seats
Etihad - 30 flights with 239 seats
Interjet - 51 flights with 150 seats
Japan Airlines - 30 flights with 161 seats
Korean - 17 flights with 248 seats, four flights with 291 seats
Lufthansa - 30 flights with 216 seats
Qantas - 30 flights with 484 seats inbound and 355 seats outbound (lower outbound estimate for blocked seats)
Qatar - 29 flights with 358 seats, one flight with 259 seats
Volaris – 11 flights with 179 seats
WestJet - 16 flights with 113 seats, 10 flights with 134 seats

Image

Source DFW Airport
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Greg
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Re: DFW Foreign Carrier Estimated September 2017 Loads

Postby MayerFM on Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:15 pm

Thanks as usual Greg.

I worked with your figures and reviewed the ones reported by the Mexican Aviation Authority (DGAC) as well, thus estimating American Airlines' load factors in the Mexico City - Dallas route:

28,042 total passengers transported in 290 flights made in the DFW-MEX-DFW route, averaging 97 passengers per flight and a load factor of approximately 71.8%.

In terms of market share in the very same DFW-MEX-DFW route:

AAL..... 64.9%
SLI..... 17.5%
AIJ..... 17.5%


As for the DFW-GDL-DFW route, 14,309 passengers were transported during the month and my estimates show a 77% market share for American and the 23% remaining for Volaris. The approximate load factors were 71.5% for the former and 84.4% for the latter.

Kind regards.
MayerFM
 
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